Tuesday, December 22, 2009

More 2010 Predictions.

Today's bad news comes from Gerald Celente, of the Trends Research Institute. This analyst did a great job of making predictions for 2008/2009, as this link given by LATOC shows. This year's predictions should sound familiar to readers of this blog - the trends have been very clear to anyone seriously considering the uncooked economic data.

These predictions occur on a sample page of the Trends Journal, which is available by subscription.

The Trends Journal Institute
Winter 2010 Sample Page (Vol. XVIII, No.1)
[Excerpts in no particular order.]

The Collapse of 2010

In November 2007, we predicted the “Panic of ’08” - there was a panic. In November 2008, we forecast the “Collapse of ’09” - there was a collapse. Today, as government spokesmen and the major media proclaim that the world is emerging from its near-cataclysmic recession, we predict the “Crash of 2010.” The rising equity markets are worlds away from the hard reality of the streets. Unemployment statistics tell the real story of real money that millions of real people no longer have and can’t get, regardless of rising equity markets...

As has been pointed out here frequently, there are some 40 million people now either unemployed or involuntary forced into part-time jobs, or had their hours or pay cut to below their cost of living needs. That's 40 million people who need living wage jobs - and there are NO such jobs on the horizon for even a fraction of them. Instead of "bailing out" individual households so that they could pay off their mortgages and credit cards, the US wasted trillions of dollars on fat-cat Robber Baron bankers who have only found new and inventive ways to screw the unemployed.

Mothers of Invention

The ongoing shock to the economic system is rebooting “Yankee ingenuity.” The need to overcome the effects of reduced individual buying power will lead to the invention of a new class of product which will be a major trend of 2010 and into the future: “Technology for The Poor.” Growing with the same speed as the Internet Revolution, the trend will be recognized, explored and exploited by legions of skilled but jobless geeks, innovators and inventors who will design and launch a new class of products and services affordable by millions of newly downscaled Western consumers...

Costs of "things" are simply going to HAVE to come down to where the real-life median wage of about $55,000 can afford them, and if companies can't do that, they will fail, pure and simple. One way to reduce costs is to cut out the middle men and transportation costs, and to use whatever local resources are abundant and eschew exotic rare components. This may mean technology devolves somewhat to a more 1950s level, but we can still make things that work great and do what we want with what we have available.

Not Made in China

A “Buy Local/My Country First” backlash will be the first sign of what we forecast will become a massive, “circle-the-wagons” movement. We forecast a “Not Made in China” consumer crusade that will spread among developed nations, leading to trade wars and protectionism. Craftspeople and small manufacturers that can establish a reputation for quality products will be able to build thriving micro-brands, while marketers who can amalgamate micro-cooperatives into true local commerce organizations will carve a solid niche for themselves...

Keeping our money in our communities instead of sending it away to transnational CEOs is the most important thing we can do for our community's health. But in order to be reasonably self-sufficient and sustainable, we need to learn the arts, crafts, skills, and trades necessary to provide for ourselves. I am thinking the apprenticeship system is going to make a big comeback, since college will no longer be affordable for most families. A skilled small-scale manufacturer or craftsperson will command both top students and find ways to produce things that are affordable and durable - that's real ingenuity.

Not Welcome Here

In 2010, the anti-immigration movement, long building, will arrive and stay in the US and abroad. America and Europe, with their immigrant populations close to double digits, are experiencing an identity crisis. In Europe, fear and resentment of Muslims has led to huge gains for anti-immigrant political parties. In the US, with mid-term elections coming up, what to do about the “illegals” will be a hot- button issue that will top the political agenda and serve as a galvanizing force for a new party...

The NIA article I excerpted yesterday also mentioned the possible rise of a Libertarian or Independent third party as a result of people's dawning realization that both the Republicats and the Democritans are bought and paid for by the same lobbyists and corporations. People are beginning to realize that they cannot trust these yahoos anymore. People that have traditionally voted certain party lines or political machines are going to start taking a harder look at what they're really supporting when they vote this way (well, at least reasonably educated people will. I'm not sure about Chereidi communities).


In 2010, survivalism will go mainstream. Unemployed or fearing it, foreclosed or nearing it, pensions lost and savings gone, all sorts of folk who once believed in the system have lost their faith. Motivated not by worst-case scenario fears but by do-or-die necessity, the new non-believers, unwilling to go under or live on the streets, will devise ingenious stratagems to beat the system, get off the grid (as much as possible), and stay under the radar...

We used to be good at staying under the radar, but lately Jewish communities seem to have gone out of their way to antagonize their gentile neighbors and city, county, and state governments - not to mention the Feds. As I mentioned yesterday, municipalities are going to look on this as an income opportunity - make no mistake. But I don't see any signs that our communities are yet to the point where we are ready to seriously consider dumping unwieldy institutions and adopt cooperatives and barter systems, shared transportation, walkable communities, and the education necessary for self-sufficiency. The system is in fact broken beyond repair, and we cannot rely on big government, big business, or anyone else to provide for our needs - they intend to fleece you to the last dollar and they don't really care if you end up on the street, as they've already proved with millions of foreclosures which have led to even children living in cars and tent cities.

We can't keep pretending the greed-fest that is modern capitalist theory works or can work. This is a "tragedy of the commons" situation, and the only way it will be solved is with common effort. But I really, really, don't see that happening - and by the time I do, it will probably be too little, too late. That's my prediction - now, go out there and prove me wrong, please.

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